Sudan's Forgotten War

Long-simmering tensions between Sudan’s military and main paramilitary force have erupted into violence over the past three days, raising the spectre of civil war and piling hardship onto communities where there are already high levels of humanitarian need.

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Almost 100 civilians – three of them aid workers – have been killed amid airstrikes and clashes that have trapped millions of people inside their homes, forced the World Food Programme to halt distributions, and prevented health workers from reaching hospitals.

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The nationwide fighting has quickly reached parts of the country with pre-existing conflicts involving rebel groups and militias. Many fear interventions by these groups could turn the current intra-military power struggle into a much broader conflagration.

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This could have a disastrous humanitarian impact on one of Africa’s largest countries. Needs are already at record levels across the nation, with some 15.8 million people – roughly a third of the population – requiring relief this year.

The fighting was triggered by plans to integrate the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces into the army. The army wanted to merge with the RSF in two years, while the RSF – which has up to 100,000 fighters and enjoys the fruits of its autonomy – wanted longer.

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Still, the rapid escalation and hardline rhetoric of the leaders of both sides reflect deeper political and social divisions within Sudan and suggest the protagonists are preparing for a protracted conflict – one long predicted by analysts and civil society groups.

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Sudan’s humanitarian situation has been worsening since 2021, when the army and the RSF jointly toppled a military-civilian power-sharing government. That administration was supposed to steer Sudan to elections after the 2019 fall of dictator Omar al-Bashir.

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The economy spiralled after the coup and hunger soared. Meanwhile, violent conflicts, often linked to the turbulent transition process, uprooted thousands in Sudan’s peripheral areas – Blue Nile, Darfur, Port Sudan, and South Kordofan, among them.

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Though the heaviest of the current fighting has centred on the capital, Khartoum, these peripheries – long marginalised and hard to access for aid groups – could bear the brunt of what follows, according to Sudanese rights activist and writer Hala Al-Karib.

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“This crisis extends way beyond Khartoum,” said Al-Karib. “Even if things eventually calm down in Khartoum, it is really going to be extremely violent in Darfur and other parts of Sudan.”